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Israel and Iran, the expert is pessimistic: “We are at the most dangerous moment.” An expanded war is on the horizon

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The mutual attacks between Israel and Iran are plunging the Middle East into the abyss. But what will happen now? “The most dangerous moment in any geostrategic rivalry is when both sides try to change the rules of the game. And now, we are at this point,” Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project of the Crisis Group, an international conflict prevention organization, read in El Jornal. “Important red lines were crossed – explains the expert. Both sides directly targeted enemy territory and showed a greater tolerance for risks than in the past. Even if this round did not end in an expanded conflict, in the next and inevitable round, due to the ambiguous new rules of the game, The probability will be much higher.

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Fayez continues: “Iran was hoping that its massive, but calculated, attack would discourage the Israeli response. The goal was clearly not achieved. Meanwhile, the limited Israeli counterattack did not prompt Iran to review support for its proxies in directly targeting Tel Aviv.” On both sides, between the different interpretations of what they achieved and what the other side learned, there is a lot of room for miscalculation. Fayez sees no winner from the clashes of the past few days: “Neither side has been able to come out stronger. Both Iran and Israel have proven that they lack the courage to start an all-out war, and that they cannot defend themselves without outside help. They have now turned their historically secret and indirect conflict into an open and direct conflict. And now there is no turning back. Only Russia and China have benefited from this “back and forth,” which has distracted the United States from Ukraine and competition with Beijing.

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