September 25, 2022

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Ukraine, Putin’s move aimed at the collapse of NATO. The alliance is now forced to respond, but remains divided over sanctions

Russian President Vladimir Putin Effects. And he did so in a decisive way, even unexpected for some. recognition, resulting in send troops (“unity of peace”, as he described it), from breakaway republics Donetsk And the Luhansk surprised his opponents. Also in light of his words a few days ago, when he had apparently rejected a proposal always Indicating that such an action would be one Violation of the Minsk agreements. Yesterday the chief Kremlin I decided to permanently get rid of the 2014 agreement, which was never honored, in fact. The goal is clear: Put the western block in the cornerselect you internal divisions and try destabilize it.

Yesterday’s move is like any other that the Russian president is already accustomed to. He, more than anyone among the world’s leaders, is able to walk on the edge of a cliff without ever falling, Raise the diplomatic confrontation to the highest level to take advantage of it. But without reaching, at least for the time being, at A open struggle. who – which It doesn’t suit anyoneIt does not suit him who does not have the economic power to support large sums of money military spendingexacerbated by severe penalties This will definitely come. It is not suitable forEurope Who fruitfully entertains with Moscow commercial exchanges Which, in the case of sanctions, will be interrupted, not forgetting to stop at gas supply In the middle of winter it would be disastrous, even in economic terms. The only ones who can afford to stay awake are United States of America: They are not economically dependent on Moscow and can benefit from one more The split between the European Union and Russiawith the union to which he will thus come close Washington, including with regard to gas supplies. Of course, however, he will have to manage the inevitable NATO fragmentationwith many countries that do not welcome open confrontation with the Union, Turkey And the Germany In the first class.

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The decision to bring troops from Moscow to DonbassHowever, the situation has not changed since 2014: the Russian army was already there to support separatist militia, albeit unofficially, and Moscow’s economic support was not at all absent. But this move has a high symbolic and “official” value: Putin It throws reality in the face of the West And for public opinion, the Minsk Accords are permanently shredded. These lands, though formally belonging toUkraineThey are actually under his control and are now recognized by Moscow.

A development that greatly complicates the lives of NATO allies. starting from the answers To be placed in the field. In the meantime, we need to understand how Russia’s military action is framed and whether it can be considered “Invade. It’s a doubt, inspired by Washington Postspinning through corridors White House Who, immediately after Putin’s announcement, announced sanctions, but they were limited to investments in Donbass, explaining that they are not very dangerous, threatening in the event of an invasion of Ukrainian lands that are still in the hands of Kiev. The analyst commented if you were Putin’s advisor Ian Bremer To the American newspaper – I was going to tell him to do it because now we have a problem.” The Russian president “has not entered ‘fully Ukraine’, and the goal is not to facilitate the response of the West.”

However, even if it is decided to proceed with sanctions in Moscow, finding an agreement acceptable to all will be a challenge. Germany remains within European borders, and is undoubtedly the country to lose in the event of harsh action by the Allies, given that it is the country with the most profitable trade with Moscow. This would be a huge economic damage to Berlin Which, however, must take into account the positions of other NATO members, with United States of America And the Great Britain In particular, who were pushing for strategy iron fist against Moscow. to show availability, Advisor Olaf Schulze In the meantime announced that the licenses for Nord Stream 2which has not yet been turned on, will remain frozen Also because of the Russian action in the Donbass. A decision that is superficial rather than tangible, given that the gas pipeline that connects directly between Russia and Germany is not Not turned on. Me too’ItaliaHowever, it has a lot to lose from the economic and trade war with the Union, due to its close trade relations and the excellent prices it has taken to purchase gas. Moreover, when leaving Europe, we must not forget about the very close relations between Moscow and AnkaraEven in the military field.

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These positions play in Putin’s favour. If the EU and NATO are divided, it will be easier for them to come to the negotiating table with one strong position. It remains to be understood to what extent Russia can withstand the pressures of possible sanctions: the internal economic situation does not allow it to face a crisis situation for a long time, not to mention the costs arising from a possible conflict if it set foot in the territory.They are still in the hands of Ukraine. Face to face with the West brings the country back, as he wanted, to clash on an equal footing with the opponents of NATO, in war of nerves Which will reward those who manage to stay longer in office.

Twitter: GianniRosini