October 3, 2022

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Ukraine, is peace possible? The role of Turkey and the key to Mariupol

As they continue I Heavy bombardment of Ukrainian citieswe continue to think about how to develop a file peace plan. mediator role TurkeyWhile military analysts focus their attention on the city of Mariupoldefined as the “minimum target” of the Russian offensive to understand the invasion.

Turkish mediation

The positions of Russia and Ukraine “agree on important and crucial points.” This was stated by the Turkish Foreign Minister. Mouloud CavusogluIn an interview with the Hurriyet newspaper, TASS news agency re-launched it. “In particular, it fully corresponds to the first four points (from the draft agreement proposed by Russia, ed.). However, there are some issues that need to be resolved at the level of heads.

Cavusoglu indicated that Ankara had expressed its readiness to organize a tripartite summit with it Russian President Vladimir PutinAnd the Volodymyr Zelensky And the Recep Tayyip Erdogan. If an agreement is reached, the presidents of Russia and Ukraine will certainly meet, and the two sides do not rule out this possibility. It is important for that to happen, whether it is in Turkey or in another country.”

The Turkish Foreign Minister said at a meeting of the Justice and Development Party in Antalya that Turkey is working hard to achieve peace in Ukraine and recognize the country’s independence. “We are competing hard The annexation of Crimea in 2014. “If the world had given an appropriate response to the annexation of Crimea, we would not be in this situation today,” Cavusoglu said.

Lower goal Mariupol from the Russians

“If the Russians take Mariupol He will have reached the minimum of the first goal, the goal of uThe end of the Crimea in the Donbassit would be the turn of another big city”, be it Odessa, Kharkiv or Kyiv. A small goal that would allow Vladimir Putin to “save face, avoid facing military humiliation.” This is what they say inAdnkronos Ukrainian sources, stating that there is still a long way to make any progress in the “asymmetric” negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow, whose real goal remains the extradition of Ukraine.

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Surrender is still elusive and the Russians will in no way get out of the “deadlock in which they have hunted”, even in the face of the impossibility of establishing a puppet regime, although Moscow continues its attempts, at least. According to Kyiv intelligence accusations of killing the president Volodymyr Zelensky and political leadership of the country. “Even if they conquered the main cities – confirmed the sources – by bringing their tanks into the squares, they still could not rule an increasingly hostile population.”

“Russia lacks strategy, and the knot is demilitarizing the country.”

On the Russian side, “there is a lack of strategy, they are trying to adapt it after the failure of the blitzkrieg and in this context we also read the launch of hypersonic missiles, which is an expected escalation – explain military analysts – which is more than an effect. Operations on the ground serve to terrorize the population and send a signal to the West “.

As for the negotiations, which will resume online tomorrow, the mood in Kyiv is that a turning point will not come soon: “From our side – the sources explain – there is a complete lack of confidence in the Russians. Putin wants to move forward with a Unequal negotiationwhose goal was surrender.” The real essence, after President Volodymyr Zelensky’s inauguration in Crimea and Donbass and neutrality, is the demilitarization of Ukraine, which Kyiv cannot accept unless there is a commitment first to the withdrawal of Russian forces and a ceasefire. Reach agreement on guarantees and states that should guarantee the security of Ukraine.

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