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Transnistria, the 12-kilometer-long convoy to the south and the next moves of Russia: military modernization –

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The new stage of the special operation in the south-southeast of Ukraine: how long will it last, what will the Russian General Staff do, how will it affect the territory, what changes will be made with the new Russian commander, what weapons will the Ukrainians have at their disposal

The Caravan of 12 km Satellite imagery of it visually indicating Russian maneuvers after the withdrawal from the northern sector. The new stage of the special operation in the south-southeast of UkraineThe plan has a few points.

1) Experts are divided on the window of time: There are those who think of an attack in a week or two (considering Supposed expiry of the transaction on May 9). On the other hand, there are those who extend their preparations by saying that Russia is not yet ready for a massive push.

2) Moscow, in addition to moving troops, is trying to fill the ranks. London says the Russian military is also trying to recruit demobilized people in Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova. However, as many former generals have made clear, it is not enough to move troops from one front to another or add soldiers: the quality of men matters, and the spell of conflict affects wear and tear. Various sources indicate that logistical difficulties continued, battalions were depleted, and some were literally neutralized.

3) However, some observers caution not to underestimate the invader. The army can use on this chessboard a large amount of fire with heavy artillery, rockets and missile batteries. He has the possibility of engaging his opponents at long distances while the Ukrainians do not have, at the moment, a sufficient number of similar means. The Russian aviation business also grew, with 220-240 daily sorties concentrated in the southern and southeastern region.

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4) The area – analysts confirm – is flat, and there are fewer wooded areas. This is an advantage for the army and a weak point for the defenders. In the north, the Ukrainians used vegetation and soil to strike a nimble snake with anti-tank systems, moving quickly and evading enemy fire. And the weather has its effect: the possibility of muddy being alone is an obstacle to movement (We saw it with Rasputitsaalways in the north).

5) Separation of weapons. there NATO helps Kyiv a lotHowever, it has problems to solve. fishing In the arsenals of Eastern Europe, but the means are not always up to par and stocks run out. The Allies now want to provide more modern Western materials, but it takes time as they have to train the Ukrainians. With the danger of an attack looming, we must hurry. Indeed, public statements from European leaders show a willingness to adapt supplies to the changing situation on the ground. The Slovaks, in addition to tanks and armored vehicles, were supposed to send two batteries of 155-mm self-propelled artillery (Zuzana). London promised useful anti-ship systems to protect Odessa. Besides weapons, there is a strong demand for ammunition. Should Kyiv too Solve logistical problems.

6) Putin entrusted the management of operations to General Alexander Dvornikov. Opinions differ about its ability. starting period Leadership during the Syrian campaign: He did not shine, but eventually called him to his homeland. But he relied on scorched earth.

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