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Stock exchanges today, March 31: Inflation gives Europe a respite, positive price lists

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Milan – European stock exchanges are trying to consolidate in the last session of the week supported by a good finish on Wall Street, encouraging data coming from Chinese manufacturing and comforting data that seems to be coming from price direction in Europe. After the massive slowdown recorded yesterday in Spain, inflation today also witnessed a slowdown in France, falling to 5.6% in March from 6.3% in February, with a serious alarm bell linked however to food prices, which grew by 15.8% year on year. year. The dynamics are similar in Italy and in the eurozone as a whole: a slowdown in the overall index thanks to a slowdown in energy, but the core component remains at stable levels. The ECB and the markets are focused on the “fundamental” component in particular. According to Unicredit analysts, in fact, it is still difficult to beat net inflation of energy components and that is why the markets are already pricing in an upcoming rate increase of 25 basis points in May. According to the specialists of the Italian Bank, it is likely that Christine Lagarde will be invited to make three more hikes of this kind to continue the fight against prices. Also a positive day in Asia, where all indicators were positive and Tokyo closed at +0.93%.

Wall Street opens higher

Wall Street opened positively. The Dow Jones rose 0.48% to 33,016.33 points, the Nasdaq advanced 0.39% to 12,059.96 points while the S&P 500 posted a gain of 0.41% to 4,068.08 points.

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US inflation rose less than expected

Inflation measured by the personal consumption expenditures index, which the US Federal Reserve uses as one of the main indicators of price pressure, rose in February at 5% year-on-year, just below the +5.1% expected by analysts. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.3%, in line with expectations.

European stock markets improved after the inflation data

European stock exchanges are trying to consolidate gains after data on eurozone inflation, which fell more than expected in March. Paris advanced by 0.4%, London and Frankfurt by 0.2% while Milan is close to par (-0.06%). Government bonds reversed course, dropping yields by a few basis points, led by BTPs, which yielded five points down to 4.16% while the spread with the Bund closed to 182 basis points.

Industry, January volume is down 1.1% MoM

In January, the Statistical Institute estimates that industry turnover, net of seasonal factors, fell 1.1% in economic terms, posting a negative trend in both markets (-0.3% in the domestic and -2.6% in the foreign market). . In the quarter from November 2022 to January 2023, the general index remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter (-0.1% in the domestic market and +0.1% in the foreign market. Correcting for calendar effects, the total turnover grows in trend terms by 8.6%, an increase of 9.1 % in the domestic market and 7.7% in the foreign market, while working days – ISTAT indicates – 21 against 20 in January 2022.

Germany, unemployment is rising slightly

Germany’s unemployment rate rose to 5.60% in March from 5.50% in February.

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Positive opening for European stock exchanges

Positive opening for the main European stock exchanges: a few minutes after the start of trading, Piazza Affari gained 0.12% with Ftse Mib at 27,053 points. Frankfurt points +0.30% and Paris +0.31%. London flat at +0.02%. In the Asian market, Tokyo closed at +0.93% with the Nikkei at 28,041 points.

China, services PMI at a 12-year high

China’s manufacturing PMI rose but at a slower pace in March, while service sector activity rose to a 12-year high. The industrial index rose to 51.9 points, above the expected 51.5 points and below the expected 52.6 points in February. This is what emerges from the National Bureau of Statistics data showing that China’s post-Covid industry recovery is struggling to take off due to weak global demand and a slumping domestic real estate market. However, the Chinese economy is supported by services, which reached 58.2, the highest level since May 2011. Overall, the two indicators indicate that the Chinese economy is still picking up after the end of the anti-Covid restrictions from which they have benefited for three years. Dragon growth. The Chinese composite PMI for March rose to 57 points in March, above 56.4 points in February, marking its highest level in more than a decade.

The spread opens at 186 pips

The spread between the BTP and the German Bund opened at 186 basis points, with the yield on the Italian 10-year bond at 4.22% in the secondary market.

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