Study backed by ScotiaRISE outlines long-term economic, health and social gains tied to public housing infrastructure investment
TORONTO — June 1, 2026
A new economic analysis commissioned by the GTHA Community Housing Collaborative suggests that large-scale investment in public housing infrastructure across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) could generate more than $102 billion in combined economic and social value over the next 25 years.
The report, titled Public Housing Dividend Report, was prepared by the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis (CANCEA) with support from Scotiabank through its ScotiaRISE initiative. The study presents what organizers describe as the first comprehensive framework to measure the full return on investment generated by public housing, including economic activity, public health outcomes, fiscal impacts and broader community wellbeing.
The findings arrive as governments and housing providers across Canada continue to grapple with affordability pressures, housing shortages and growing infrastructure needs in urban centres.
Public Housing Framed as Economic Infrastructure
The report evaluates five investment scenarios across the GTHA through 2050, measuring the impact of renewing aging public housing assets while expanding the supply of publicly owned homes. Researchers concluded that maintaining and growing public housing infrastructure could create substantial long-term gains for governments, communities and the private sector.
Under the study’s central growth scenario, investments in public housing are projected to generate nearly $50 billion in GDP growth over 25 years. Researchers also forecast more than 354,000 job-years of employment, with approximately 15,000 sustained full-time jobs annually by 2050 across sectors including construction, manufacturing, transportation, retail and professional services.
The analysis also estimates $1.8 billion in avoided health-care and justice system costs through reductions in emergency room visits, hospital inpatient stays and justice-related events.
According to the report, renewed and expanded public housing infrastructure could also attract approximately $6 billion in private capital investment into surrounding communities, supporting additional business activity and economic development.
Researchers estimate that 23,000 public housing units could either be added or preserved from closure by 2050, providing stable housing for more than 86,000 individuals and families across the region.
The report further assigns an estimated $48.3 billion in “social value” tied to improved physical and mental health outcomes, stronger family stability, increased housing satisfaction and enhanced community safety.
In addition, governments are projected to collect approximately $12.6 billion in additional federal and provincial tax revenues tied to economic activity generated by the investment program.
Government and Industry Leaders Endorse Findings
Federal, municipal and industry leaders attending the report’s launch event at the Scotiabank Centre on Monday said the findings reinforce the broader economic role of public housing infrastructure.
“The Public Housing Dividend report makes clear that housing and the economy are deeply connected. Access to adequate, affordable housing is a foundation for better health, education, employment and financial security. It also strengthens communities and supports long-term economic growth. This report gives us the evidence for what many people already know from lived experience: when we invest in public housing, the benefits reach far beyond the people who live there. Public housing benefits all of society,” said The Honourable Evan Solomon, Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Innovation and Minister responsible for the Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario, Member of Parliament for Toronto Centre.
MP Leslie Church said the research could influence how governments and communities evaluate the long-term benefits of housing investments.
“The evidence presented today will inform how society thinks about the long-term value of housing our most vulnerable neighbours well. We are proud to stand alongside the GTHA Community Housing Collaborative and Scotiabank in advancing this work. Public housing generates real returns for workers, families, seniors, and children, and for the governments that serve them,” Church said.
Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow also emphasized the broader social and economic effects tied to housing investment.
“Everyone deserves a safe and affordable place to call home. This report shows that investing in public housing creates jobs, improves health outcomes, strengthens communities and saves money over the long term. When we invest in housing, we are investing in people and building a more affordable, caring and safe Toronto,” Chow said.
Housing Providers Call for Long-Term Investment Strategy
Sean Baird, President and CEO of Toronto Community Housing Corporation, said the study positions public housing as critical infrastructure comparable to transit systems and hospitals.
“The Public Housing Dividend proves that public housing is productive infrastructure that generates measurable economic, health, and fiscal returns. Like bridges, transit, and hospitals, public housing infrastructure’s value goes far beyond its immediate purpose. It can meaningfully address the current housing crisis in the GTHA and go even further, creating value for residents, workers and businesses all across the region,” Baird said.
Scotiabank executives also highlighted the role of private-sector partnerships in supporting housing investment strategies.
“Access to safe, affordable housing is fundamental to building strong, inclusive communities and a resilient economy. Through ScotiaRISE, we’re proud to support research like The Public Housing Dividend Report, which helps strengthen the evidence for scaling community housing in a way that accounts for both social and economic value. Through Scotiabank’s long-standing relationship with Toronto Community Housing, we can help provide financing for community housing in the GTHA, and reinforce the importance of viewing housing as a driver of economic growth, resilience and stronger communities,” said Meigan Terry, Executive Vice President and Chief Corporate and Public Affairs Officer at Scotiabank.
Paul Smetanin, President of CANCEA, said the report combines economic analysis, social value measurement and fiscal modelling into a single integrated framework.
“Until now, economic analysis, social value measurement, health-system costing, and fiscal appraisal have each told part of the public housing story in isolation. The Public Housing Dividend brings those perspectives together within a single framework for the first time. What it shows is that public housing generates a measurable, positive rate of return for residents, communities, governments, and the wider economy simultaneously. ONEMODEL, a Canadian-developed simulation platform, makes that reconciliation possible by representing people, households, buildings, businesses, and governments as one connected system,” Smetanin said.
Collaborative Represents 40% of Ontario’s Public Housing Stock
The GTHA Community Housing Collaborative includes the six largest public housing providers across Toronto, Peel, York, Durham, Halton and Hamilton. Collectively, the group oversees more than 81,500 homes and serves over 150,000 tenants.
According to the organization, the combined asset value of its housing portfolio exceeds $20 billion, representing roughly 40 per cent of Ontario’s total public housing stock.
The report launch event included panel discussions focused on the economic multiplier effects of affordable housing and potential financing models for future housing expansion initiatives.