September 24, 2022

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Italy: There is still room for growth

We’ll grow this year to 6.1%, plus or minus two decimal places, which is an extraordinary result that we haven’t seen in two decades. If it is November 30th, Istat will confirm it And it advanced 2.6% in the third quarter, we can get to 6.1% annually even with the fourth quarter being between -0.1% and +0.1%. On the other hand, if the third quartile equals 2.8% in the second reading It will reach 6.2% annually even with no change in the fourth quarter.

From this point of view, the trend is definitely positive, but we cannot forget Some critical issues Which may partially affect this scenario.

The first, and most important, is related tothe evolution of the epidemic Which, even in the case of an enhanced green card, can impose local movement restrictions (curfews after a certain period of time, travel only in cases of necessity such as medical care and food expenses).

The second relates to‘Weakening consumer confidence Due to the continuous increase in prices which with stable wages can lead to a decrease in purchases especially during the holiday season.

On this basis, in the forty-fourth observatory of Italian accounts just published, we refer to Possibility of downward revision of annual GDP estimates to a few decimal places Which can go down to 6.0% or less likely to be 5.9%.

From a proper perspective, these results remain very respectable, especially when compared to our country’s growth over the past decade.

Quarterly comparison of GDP

Moreover, if we think that before the pandemic the absolute value of quarterly real GDP was just over 430 billion, while we are now around 425 billion, we can very well understand that if all activities are resumed at full speed, there will still be room for more Growth to which all development activities associated with the PNRR will then be added.

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If we extend our observation window to the European context, we can find Italy (the blue line in the graph) in a very good position: roughly on the same level as Germany, which experienced a slight decline in the acute phase, just below France, just below France and above the Kingdom United States and much higher than Spain.

This makes us believe that we will succeed in Restoring pre-pandemic values ​​already in the first half of 2022 without much difficulty. The overall picture is undoubtedly favorable, and there are obviously things to be critical of, but let’s enjoy the moment: there is still room for growth.

Maurizio Maseru November 28, 2021

It can be downloaded for free on the Mazziero Research website The 44th Observatory of Italian Accounts, published on November 26.