August 17, 2022

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Turkish aid to circumvent Putin’s sanctions. Trigonometry – Corriere.it

From Federico Fobini

Cross-examination of trade data with Russia indicates that huge triangles have occurred on this route to circumvent sanctions

There are twenty countries through which Russia has managed to circumvent it Sanctions imposed by democratic governments Since the beginning of the war. Among them turkeyThe China that they The United Arab Emiratesas well as several former Soviet republics that have been in the center of doubt from the start: the list includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and even GeorgiaRussia launched a military aggression in 2008, and at the start of the conflict in February tens of thousands of people took to the streets in support of Ukraine.

This is a fact that many Italian companies are probably familiar with: A look at trade flows He reveals clear evidence that Turkey in particular, within a few months, has gradually become a platform through which many exporters of products made in Italy continue to supply Russia on a very large scale, even when this practice is illegal.

But let’s go in order. The International cases of circumventing sanctions Across those twenty countries it will be hundreds. They will be the focus of an upcoming report from the panel of experts led by former US ambassador to Moscow Michael McFaul and Andrey Yermak, head of the Politburo of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Informed observers anticipate that the Yermak-McFaul group will propose to Western governments to close loopholes, threatening secondary sanctions against countries aiding Russia through a network of trade triangles.

It will not be easy, given the methodological dimensions of some of the countries involved. Definitely a comprehensive examination of data on exchanges from Italy to turkey From Turkey to Russia, there are huge triangles on this road to circumvent sanctions. It’s hard to explain the stark oddities of the past few months. First, Turkey is the country he arrived in last June Italy records the largest increase in exports by far: more than 87% year-on-year, reaching 1.4 billion euros in sales in just one month; This is an increase of 500 million per month compared to February and a unique case in more than ten years of sales to Turkey that have always remained well below one billion per month (according to Istat). This boom is very surprising because last year the Turkish lira almost halved its value against the euro, making imports from Italy much more expensive for local companies.

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But the explanation is likely to be found in the export data of the Turkish Statistical Office (Turkstat) in Ankara. Between February and June of this year, Turkish exports to Russia exploded, with a growth of nearly $400 million per month. Among Turkey’s twenty major trading partners, Russia is the fastest growing destination since the start of the war (up 68% of Turkish sales) and last year (up 46%).. Even other countries that reject sanctions against Moscow such as China, Vietnam and Malaysia are now exporting less to the well-established Russian economy. On the other hand, the flows of goods and services from Turkey to Russia have never been so strong, just as the flows from Italy to Turkey have never been so strong. The volume of increase in trade is also similar, between 300 and 400 million dollars a month.

This is evidence, not evidence. But if Italian companies are really using Turkey as a platform to circumvent sanctions and illegally open the Russian market, it will be impossible for the current Rome government to ignore. As well as the next day.

Jul 31, 2022 (change on Jul 31, 2022 | 08:21)