October 3, 2022

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The Russo-Ukrainian War, number one in Sberbank for investors: “Ten years to return the Russian economy to 2021 levels”

will take Decade Because ofRussian economy Back to levels 2021. Unless Moscow adopts fixes appropriate for context Penalties Westerners about the invasion of Ukraine, which is unprecedented. To support her is the number one of Sberbankthe leading Russian credit institution.

“If nothing is done in the current situation, the return of the Russian economy to the level of 2021 may take about 10 years,” he said on Friday. Hermann Griff Talking to Annual International Economic Forum Russia in St. Petersburg.

According to the “inertia” scenario, Sberbank expects that Russia’s GDP It will fall 7% in 2022 and 10.3% in 2023 compared to 2021, the year it grew 4.7% to $1.77 trillion. The decline will return to single digits in subsequent years and fall to -0.1% in 2030, according to a slice of the institute’s forecast presented at the annual Russian investor event.

But Gref noted that Russia redirected 73% of oil shipments To the countries of the East in the months of April and May. Gref noted that 56% of Russian exports and 51% of imports are due to countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia: “This is a threat to 15% of the country’s GDP.”

Thursday conservative Russian Central Bank It has dampened hopes of returning to pre-invasion indicators. “External conditions have changed for a long time, if not forever,” he said. Elvira Nabiulina On the same forum: “It is clear to everyone that it will never be the same again.”