The Economic Effects of War and Market Inclination – Corriere.it

The military attack on Ukraine began overnight. Russia’s move under Putin sent the markets into a panic, with prices of commodities, energy, grains and metals skyrocketing, and stock markets crashing. Crude oil price under pressure: Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel for the first time in more than seven years, then settling at $99, while Brent crude futures rose 7.71%, at $104 a barrel. The upward race, apparently without brakes, also continues on gas prices. March futures traded in Amsterdam rose 57.2% to €139.75 per megawatt-hour, while the April maturity date rose 56% to €138.67. The increase was contained in US-traded futures, up 5.12%.
The Moscow Stock Exchange collapsed almost 30% after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The Moscow List, which was put on hold as the announcement approached, extended the initially recorded losses and sees the Moex index post a record low of 28.8%. The Russian dollar-denominated RTS index collapsed to -38%, to an intraday low of 960.24 points. The Russian attack on Ukraine shattered about $180 billion of capital on the Moscow Stock Exchange, according to Bloomberg calculations. The Russian authorities were forced to suspend trading for the second time after the Moex index fell by 28.8%, in what is the largest drop in its history.
In the afternoon, the stock market is still in sharp decline after the negative start of the session on Wall Street. The Ftse Mib rose only a few fractions of a point, and scored -4.51% at 24,784 points. In Piazza Avari, the decline affected Unicredit (-12.8%) with other banks such as Intesa (-8.4%), BBM (-8.5%) and Bir (-7%). Pirelli sells 10.7%. They kept Eni (-0.2%), Snam and Saipem at 1.3%, Terna 1.7% and Leonardo at +3%.
here, Stock prices and trend of major indices in real time.
here, BTP-Bund spread adjustment in real time: live markets.

falling bags

Sales continue at Milan Col Ftse Mib that stays below 25,000 points Where it finished from the end of the morning (-4.2% to 24,865) was affected by banks and managed savings. Unicredit led the decline (-12.61%), and the institute led by Andrea Orsel represented one of the most exposed companies in Russia, Pirelli (-10.62%), following the calculations. Possible sanctions in Moscow are punishing other banks starting with Intesa (-8.26%), which also ended in a volatile auction such as Banca Generali (-9.75%) and Mediolanum (-9.08%) with savings management suffering a trend change from war-caused markets in Ukraine. Instead, the winds of war pushed a group active in the field of defense such as Leonardo (+3.62%), Pharmaceutical Diasurin (+2.11%), “Oil” Saipem (+2%) also thanks to less bad than expected calculations. Eni is stable (-0.09%) while crude oil prices are current. Meanwhile, the BTP-BIND spread narrowed to 164 basis points with an Italian 10-year yield of 1.78% in a market aiming for a possible delay to stop the European Central Bank from buying securities.
Significant drop in spread between German BTPs and Bunds for 10 years And yields on treasury products, some analysts point out, after Austrian Central Bank Governor Robert Holzmann, a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, in an interview with Bloomberg, assumed that the European Central Bank with the attack on “Ukraine” could slow its program to end economic stimulus. . The spread is down to 163 basis points from 174 previously and the 10-year BTP rate is down to 1.8%.

All European indices are traded sharply. The CAC 40 in Paris lost 4.35 percent to 6,492 points, and the DAX 30 in Frankfurt lost 4.29 percent to 14,003 points. Madrid’s Ibex 35 index loses 4.99% to 8,069 points.

Tokyo is down 1.81% and Hong Kong is down 3.2% (tech is losing more than 5%). Wall Street futures also fell about 2%, after the S&P lost its initial gains on the way yesterday, closed down about 2%, and entered further into the correction phase, leaving the market at .18% since the last peak in November. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq in turn ended the decline at their lowest levels for the year. Markets are telling us Russia will now do what it wants given the weakening of sanctions, said Ray Atrell, chief strategist at National Australia Bank, judging by the real concern that Europe is now cut off from Russian gas.

Gas, oil and aluminum prices skyrocketed

The price of gas has risen on the Amsterdam market, which is the methane standard for continental Europe. After the Russian attack on Ukraine, futures contracts rose to the maximum By 30% to 114 euros per megawatt-hour, it is the fourth consecutive day of increases.
The price of aluminum reached an all-time high: the price of the metal reached $3,382.50 per ton, surpassing the previous peak of $3,380.15 recorded during the global financial crisis in July 2008. With Brent hacking $100 in the hours of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Late in the morning, Brent prices reached $105 a barrel for the first time since 2014, an increase of 8% over the previous session. WTI’s high-quality crude oil is also a move from $100 to $99.4 (+7.9%).
Read also: Nord Stream 2, because the new (only) gas pipeline is a weapon in Europe against Putin

Ruble at historic lows, Bitcoin below $35 thousand (-9%)

As investors abandon riskier assets and turn to safer ones: the euro fell to a three-week low against the dollar, which is considered a safe-haven asset, The ruble, at an all-time low, is losing more than 9%. The Central Bank of Russia is carrying out interventions in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the situation after the fall of the ruble. Gold rose to its highest level since November 2020 at $1,944 an ounce.
Cryptocurrencies also fell after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Bitcoin drops -8% below $35,000 and there is a 12% drop in Ethereum. It is worth noting that from the $64,000 limit reached on November 9, Bitcoin has now lost about 50% of its value.

Food prices continue

The euro falls against the dollar after the Moscow attack on Ukraine. The single currency lost 0.54% to 1.1246 against the US currency. The exchange rate with the yen also fell sharply to 128.79 (-1%).
Grain prices rose after the Russian attack on Ukraine. The cost of wheat, of which Kiev is a major producer and exporter, increased by 5.90%. But the prices of soybeans (+2.87%), corn (+5.47%) and oats (+4.81%) rose.