From statistics to comparing odds
Prediction, like soccer, is a Inaccurate science that have been discussed for many years now. There are many today Betting philosophieshowever, they are all tainted by the same all too common mistake: believing they’ve finally found their way winning formula. However, although an exact formula has not yet been found, there are ways to do so Prediction study In an emotional and conscious manner, without giving up fun Increase theoretical chances of guessing. In fact, there are several factors that can create added value for a pre-match analysis:
- Stats in progress
- Historical statistics
- Study classes
- Study of human factors
The first tip for studying football match predictions is to study the statistics related to the current season, that is, those that range from the start of the competition to the last match played. At this point, it is necessary to make an introduction and remember this Statistics should not be confused with odds. In fact, statistics in football is an exact science, because it refers to past events, while probability is imprecise, because it refers to uncertain future events. Therefore, the first thing you need to do is collect as many statistics as possible to study your game in order to collect more objective explanations of what happened in the past and from different angles. For example, what is most useful cross Most popular statistic home team With the most common statistic of away team. Thus, even if Juventus displayed 7 Under 2.5 in the last eight, before predicting Under we would consider whether the opposing team would confirm this trend or not.
In historical statistics we find some very interesting figures, relating to events very distant in time. First entry to watch? the history between the two teamsbut it may be very useful to investigate History between coaches. For example, did you know that Has Allegri against Sarri managed 9 wins and 4 draws from 16 matches and collected a total of 10 ‘under 2.5’?
Moreover, regarding the distant past, there are several Curiosity that indicate which stadiums or teams are in a particular location in the schedule, regions, or even the times of year and days of the week. How often do you read or hear phrases like:
- Milan have won all of the last six times they have played at 20:45;
- Inter always won this season when they played before Napoli;
- Berardi scored 5 goals at the San Siro in 17 matches against Milan and Inter.
- Immobile scored 43 goals in 46 matches against newly promoted teams;
*Milan and Inter examples are purely indicative
With regard to the quota study, there is considerable disagreement between those who support and those who deny the practical usefulness of certain statistics that can be found online. Here is one Example Some of the stats in potential debate: “Every time ‘1’ closed the market at 1.80, games ended in 43% of the cases at ‘1’, 72% at ‘1X’, etc.”
In our opinion, this is data that can be really expensive and distracting to read, plus the fact that in some cases this information is only obtained through database subscription services, which pretend to make predictions. Actually, it’s good to remember that Statistics and prediction are not synonymous! So, the only smart thing you can do is make one Compare the odds Offered by different bookmakers and betting on the platform that rewards the most favored markets; For example, if you prefer Results of the partial / final development of the match, you have to look for the bookmaker that pays the most for this type of market. Checking the books, it turns out that there are bookmakers like Terrybet, who tend to reward bets on 1X2 banners more in favor of the big ones, and bookmakers like Snai who do the opposite.
Compare on the “1” mark between tiribetand Goldbet and Snai
Bet “1” Turin-Verona quoted
1.89 on Terrybet, 1.83 on Goldbet and 1.83 on Snai
So far, between statistics and probability, we have only talked about numbers, but for an in-depth study of prediction, we must also add one Study the humanities from the match. Indeed, it should not be forgotten that an average of thirty men take the field, with each Psychological, mathematical, technical and tactical variables related to the human domain. In this context, for example, it might be interesting to investigate how a team or a coach behaves when they are under pressure or, on the contrary, when they are safe from media pressure. It is no coincidence that A.S To win the World Cup in Qatar 2022 were Argentina and Messi, perhaps less powerful than ever on an artistic and individual level. Beyond that, another classic example is that of mid-range teams, who tend to offer excellent returns in the early part of the season, and then drop in March, when things start to get serious. Finally, before making the prediction official, it might be worth taking a look at it Possible lineups And the Pre-game conferences.
Photo: La Presse
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