Estimates of economic growth for Italy are subject to new changes: in the quarterly bulletin, The Bank of Italy assumed GDP of 3.2% for 2022 compared to 2.6% in Junetaking into account a hypothetical scenario in which the war in Ukraine could continue throughout the year and the suspension of Russian gas would be only partial. On the other hand, for the biennium 2023-2024, economists are reviewing the downward trend I made forecasts just last month: from 1.6% down to 1.3% for the next year and from 1.8% to 1.7% for the next.
However, the Bank of Italy also assesses the worst context in which the reduction of gas imported from Moscow was in total, and in this case, the effect will be negative on GDP, and, consequently, on the growth of the country: In 2022 it will expand to less than 1%, while next year a recession may occur by nearly two percentage points and with the recovery from 2024. However, the assumed scenario does not include potential economic policy responses that could be introduced to mitigate the effects on households and businesses. it is expected that Assistance measures for businesses and households to tackle rising energy pricesalong with those introduced in recent years in response to the epidemiological emergency and the planned interventions in Pnrr – according to the Bank of Italy – could raise the overall level of GDP by more than 3.5 percentage points during the three-year period 2022-24, of which about 2 A point attributable to the measures outlined in the plan.
employment and consumption
Economists’ estimates show that employment tends to expand, albeit at a slower rate than GDP. The unemployment rate could drop from 9.5% in 2021 to 8% in 2024. Then With the decline in the first quarter, household consumption will develop, albeit slowly, in the rest of the current year and in the first half of 2023. In 2022, consumption is expected to increase by 2.3%, 0.5% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024. On the other hand, the propensity to save will decrease: as already happened in 2021 when it was 13.1% (compared to 15.6% in 2020), in 2024 it could reach pre-pandemic values.
The forecast of the Bank of Italy is positive, because the risks are trending downward, as economists explain: the most important, undoubtedly, are the direction of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, This may affect the availability and prices of raw materials – They write – as well as lead to a stronger slowdown in global trade and a marked deterioration in confidence. And this follows the risk of the COVID-19 pandemic experiencing another boom: if it spreads globally, it could happen It also affects international supply chains. Other risks are the consequences of the first two, such as rising inflation, energy prices and wages.
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