June 9, 2023

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Close to the European Central Bank, the risk of mortgages: rising premiums for those who opted for the variable rate, and worse conditions for those who demand a fixed rate

Click on the cost of the money advertised European Central Bank It will also have a ripple effect on Mortgages. Who bought a house with an interest rate loan Worker More immediate effect: Premiums will go up Already in July, when the first rise in the reference rate 25 basis pointsAnd a new increase will start in September with the second change announced by Eurotower. For those who have fixed exchange rate There are no consequences, but those who planned to claim a property purchase in the coming months will suffer the repercussions: the offers are already gradually getting cheaper and from now on we will see further increases inIrswhich is the standard for these loans.

For variable rate mortgages, the transmission channel is the indicator Euribor: Currently, the three-month is below zero (-0.30%), but given the future trend at the end of the year, it will reach 1%, according to his calculations Face.it. If the average variable rate of a loan of 120,000 euros to be repaid in 20 years is equal to today 0.85%with a monthly payment of 544 EURby December the amount can be Heavier than about 75 euros. in twelve months (a June 2023), according to the supply comparator, the index can reach about 1.75% which will raise the flotation rate to 2.95% and Dumb installment 663 eurosthis means Approximately 120 euros more compared to the day. In December 2027, forecasts say that the price of Euribor will be close to 2.10%. In this case the rate will increase to 3.30% and the monthly payment to 684 euros. But in this time horizon, anything can happen, including a new change in the position of monetary policy.

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As for the rates? Constant, the nominal annual rate starting from 2021 has already increased significantly thanks to the expectation of stopping the excessive expansion policies of the Central Bank. Today, according to Facile.it polls, For the average mortgage, it’s hard to find options under 2.4%. After all, the benchmark index rose: the IRS index for 20 years was at the end of November in 0.34%Now it’s over 2.1%. For those who have to buy, the variant at the moment remains much cheaper, with indicators starting from 0.65%. But they are destined to rise soon.