“Think calmly,” “Stop fanning the flames,” “Don’t let the Ukrainian conflict get out of control.” there Chinese diplomacy Keep dripping pleas on the Ukrainian crisis.
While waiting for Wang Yi’s public (and private) remarks today in Moscow, he spoke this morning in Beijing Qin Gangthe Minister of Foreign Affairs Who comes in the Mandarin hierarchy after Wang, a member of the Politburo and head of the Communist Party’s international policy. Qin Gang stressed that China will continue “pressure for dialogue” And he gives her “wisdom to find a political solution.”
“Political solution,” in Beijing’s parlance, has gained new prominence since Wang Yi announced last week the imminent submission of a bid. an offer By Xi Jinping for Stop the conflict. The Chinese president could launch it in a speech or document this fateful week marking the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion (which Xi did not call an invasion).
For several months, Europeans in particular had been hoping Something interfered with Putin. So far, China has not shown a clear interest in stopping the war immediately (it admits once again that Putin will allow himself to be persuaded): China’s trade exchanges with the West continue to flourish. Register with us in 2022, its surplus is growing; Russian oil reaches Chinese industries at an affordable price and in large quantities. Many political scientists argue that mediation will be impossible in any case, because Beijing is not neutralAs evidenced by the February 4, 2022 “cooperation without borders” declaration between dear friends Xi and Putin.
However, it is forgotten that the cease-fire treaty in the Korean War, in 1953bear in the center signature General Peng Tiehuaithe leader of the Chinese People’s Volunteer Army who attacked in waves to capture Seoul (North Korean aide Kim Il-sung and enemy general Mark Clark signed as UN unit commander alongside him).
Therefore, being neutral is not always necessary to make peace or engage in mediation (just as a counterbalance to the other side). It is clear that a negotiation To bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table must include the United States. Of course, this should be considered Xi has not spoken to President Zelensky yetWhile he has already met or heard from his friend Putin four times, after February 4, 2022, the Day of “Cooperation without Borders”.
The problem is whether the “ideas of political solution” mentioned by Wang Yi can be the basis for dialogue. Something was understood, both from the general words of the Chinese envoy during his European tour, and from reckless (unknown) EU diplomats and comments from politicians. the The plan should be at 12 or 14 points.
1) “We must adhere to the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty,” Wang said.
2) “We need to ensure the security needs of all parties,” he immediately added, opening a big question mark.
3) A cease-fire and a cessation of arms supplies (it is known that the West supports the Ukrainian resistance, while Beijing denies that it wants to support the Russians with “lethal weapons”).
4) “Ensuring that there are no nuclear attacks or attacks on civilian nuclear facilities.”
5) Commitment not to use biochemical weapons.
Once a suspension of hostilities has been reached on this basis, can dialogue begin between Moscow and Kiev?
What territorial unit of Ukraine will be drawn on the Chinese map?
Beijing did not recognize L’annexation of Crimea On the Russian side in 2014, however He did not condemn her vote in the United Nations. The same line in the recent farce referendums for 2022 in Donbass. Beijing is also anxious because Don’t want to create a “legal” precedent for Taiwan, which (so far the theory) prides itself on mastering it. The Chinese also fear that the US defense of Ukraine will be a model that can be repeated in Taiwan, perhaps not only with arms supplies, but also with the deployment of US forces.
but, Putin does not seem ready to back downAfter all this blood. After that, Xi agrees with him when he talks about it “Safety for all”: refers to the eastern expansion of NATO, to the lack of neutrality of Ukrainian democracy. Germany’s harsh remark: “A just peace does not reward the aggressor, we must stand up to defend international law and those who have been attacked” (German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock said after learning of the Chinese plan).
in the end, Suspension of the supply of weapons to Ukraine During the cease-fire, Russia will be allowed to do so reorganize their forces And replenish the arsenal of weapons and ammunition. Here it is explained Doubts of many European governments, also eager to see the conflict end in the heart of the continent. But a proposal of this kind, to the Assembly of the United Nations to be opened in New York, would be very welcome by many countries “in the southern hemisphere.” will remain China’s geopolitical success.
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