December 6, 2022

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Canadian crop forecasts lower Italian durum wheat prices

Fortunately, the time for a dictatorial solution to wheat demand is far from over, and Italy is looking abroad, and by 2021 it will import 60% of durum and soft wheat. With Erdogan’s mediation and Putin’s potential, 25 million tons of wheat could soon go to Europe’s granary Ukraine, Canada, and the Middle East and Asia, loaded into ports. America. Canada is the leading producer of durum wheat, essential for the pasta supply chain, but more important for bread, with production reaching 5.9 million tonnes in the 2020/2021 campaign. It is no coincidence that in 2021 Italy will import 46% of durum wheat from Canada (Ukraine, on the other hand, is worth a decisive marginal share), which means that the overall production of wheat will exceed 30 million tons (second only to the United States, 62 million tons), with an enormous specific weight in the grain market. contains Firmly optimistic forecasts for the next harvest led to a sudden drop in the price of Italian durum wheat on the Bari Commodity Exchange, which went from 565 euros a week to the current 520 euros a tonne.

CIA – A dizzying decline underscored by the Italian peasantry, “Increasing cost of production and drought threatens to bring farmers to their knees. The drastic depreciation goes against all logic, at a time when the grain market has stagnated after the Ukrainian conflict and the price of pasta has increased by 17% (durum wheat is the main ingredient). Chicago Stock Exchange Durum Wheat Futures Index Rises After News – According to the CIA, it became “artistic.” – Abundant estimates of the next harvest in Canada. These valuations, which are very urgent (threshing in North America in three / four months) are advertised for the sole purpose of prompting Italian grain farmers to sell immediately, with the logical consequence of falling prices. The current prices of durum wheat are far from what they were a few weeks ago, so agricultural entrepreneurs are demanding the right price, which is an essential condition to cover the hugely increased production costs. Italian farmers still complain about aid decree, “Failure to extend the fuel tax credit, coupled with a decline in production that will be about 35% below the average in recent years: durum wheat will be difficult to reseed in the fall.

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It was the same idea as Confagrigoldura, which entrusted the vision of the federation to Carlo Maresca, president of the National Food Grains Federation. “After last year’s sharp contraction, news of a return to good production levels in North America, perhaps artfully filtered, prompted many Italian farmers to sell quickly, creating an oversupply in the market”, Maresca explains. “In the last few hours, the price of durum wheat has suddenly fallen, which is not justified by the harvest campaign, resulting in an average 30% decrease in production in the national territory. The risk, fueled by huge financial speculation taking advantage of the current international crisis, is a real decline in the value of durum wheat, which will have disastrous consequences for national agriculture. .Due to this – Maresca concludes – We believe it is necessary to carefully check the trend of prices in the various markets throughout Italy. Farmers paying taxes for speculative maneuvers that have nothing to do with the serious and sustainable development of a strategic sector for the Italian economy must once again avoid it at all costs. Like all agriculture, a sector that has to deal with unprecedented increases in production costs requires cooperation between all parts of the supply chain to avoid collapse.

Finally, Goldretty underscores how In Foggia, the South’s most representative market, wheat prices rose 6.6% worldwide, with a decisive turn under pressure, and decided to leave the commodity exchange session to prevent further damage to producers. US-China talks resume The desire to speculate on the price of Italian wheat emerged – Goldretti adds – during the Gun session in Rome, where the latest reduction plan was 35 euros for the south, 25 euros for the center and 25 euros for the north. To the sender from the agricultural side.

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In Italy, among others, drought has reduced production by 35%-40% in the most suitable areas such as Puglia, where wheat cultivation costs farmers up to 600 euros per hectare in terms of increased production. The avalanche effect of the war in Ukraine and spending after the crisis created by the Covid pandemic is reflected in layers from seeds to diesel to fertilisers. A higher penalty should be levied with the largest percentage increase in current costs – Goldretty continues – It is precisely the grains, from wheat to oats, that are cultivated, with prices at the mercy of market speculation.

Lower production burdens grain companies, which have had to face increases in production costs ranging from +170% for fertilizers to +129% for diesel, an average increase of 68% in current costs according to Crea’s data, according to Goldreddy. Crop cuts due to rising costs and persistent severe drought – Underlines Coldreddy – As Italy is already obliged to import 64% of grain for bread and 44% of grain for pasta, according to an analysis by the Center Studies Disclosures, there is a risk of increasing foreign dependence for agri-food products. It is essential to immediately work towards supply chain agreements between agricultural and industrial companies with precise quality and quantity objectives and reasonable prices that do not fall below production costs. The new law not only requires investment to increase land productivity and yield, but also rainwater harvesting basins to combat drought.