February 9, 2023

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A future without glaciers? “Two out of three people at risk by 2100”, study published in the journal “Science”.

Pittsburgh (USA). “The mountain glaciers, Perennial ice sheets except the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are a Essential water resource And for nearly two billion people Threatened by global warming“. The University Assistant’s research was born out of this assumption David Rhones, He who outlined the rule Glaciers in the world Those in it Central Europe, western Canada and the United States, the fate of disappearing.

A study of Carnegie Mellon UniversityRecently Published in the journal “Science”.Installs Most threatened glaciers They are smallwith a’An extension of less than 1 sq km: especially, situated ones Central Europeincluding the Alps, Western Canada And America.

“These glaciers will remain Affected by a global temperature increase of 1.5° to 4°Cbehavior Losses range from a quarter to almost half of their mass By 2100 – The text reads -. Calculations suggest that glaciers They will lose basically More mass They will contribute And sea level rise than they imply Current Ratings: 2 in 3 at risk by 2100”.

Assistant Professor David Rounce Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering of Carnegie Mellon University, he explained New predictions regarding mass loss Glaciers In different scenes throughout the century emissions. The Predictions They have been Integrated under scenarios of global temperature change To support discussions on adaptation and mitigation. His study shows that the world can Glaciers are losing up to 41% of their total mass this centuryOr Only 26% depends onClimate change mitigation efforts It can be practiced by man.

Specifically, Rohns and his team found this in a future scenario Investment in fossil fuels continued to account for more than 40% of the ice sheet It will disappear within a century e 80% of glaciers may disappear. Even under the best-case, low-emissions scenario, the global average temperature increases Limited to +1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levelsthe, More than 25% of the glacier mass disappear and Almost 50% are glaciers He will do the same.

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there Most Disappearing glaciers Small in size (less than 1 sq km Ed) By glacial standards, but their loss may be a Negative impact on “local hydrology, tourismHazards and Cultural Values ​​of Glaciers”.

The work conducted aims to “inspire climate policy makers Reduce temperature change targets beyond the 2.7°C threshold. Otherwise, small glacial areas like Central Europe, Western Canada and the United States will be affected So Disproportionate From temperatures above 2° C A 3°C increase would mean the glaciers in these areas would disappear completely.”The paper is still reading.

Ruse’s model is calibrated, thanks for that An unprecedented amount of data, Including Individual observations of mass transfer for each glacier On earth, thus provides A complete and comprehensive picture of glacier mass change. The use of ‘supercomputer’ It was essential to support the application State-of-the-art calibration methods hey Large collections of different emission scenarios.