Friday, March 1, 2024

Umbrella arms and NATO: offer to persuade Kiev to negotiate

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Double bindUkraine In the childor at least opening a large military umbrella over Kiev to ensure its security, for the sake of persuasion Volodymyr Zelensky Starting peace talks with Russia by the end of the year: This may be the plan that some of NATO’s most important members are working on. particularly, GermanyAnd France And Great Britain They believe that the strengthening of relations between NATO and Ukraine is a condition that can potentially encourage the Ukrainian government to sit down at the negotiating table.

Doubts and bewilderment

As mentioned before Wall Street Journalfeeding some of Kyiv’s Western partners Confusion About its ability to recover all its lands that fell into the hands of Russia. Not only that: the German chancellor Olaf Schulz And the French president Emmanuel Macron They had called on the Ukrainian leader to resume dialogue with Moscow during the meeting he had with Zelensky in Paris in February.

For his part, the British Prime Minister said Rishi SunakLast week, he unveiled a draft agreement that would give Ukraine much broader access Advanced military equipmentWeapons and ammunition to defend yourself once the war is over. Sunak himself said the West should send Kiev weapons that would give it a decisive advantage on the battlefield, including warplanes.

Behind the scenes, however, deep skepticism emerged among politicians in the United Kingdom, France and Germany about whether Ukraine could succeed in driving the Russians out of eastern Ukraine. “We constantly repeat that Russia should not win, but what does that mean? If the war continues long enough with this intensity, Ukraine’s losses will become unbearable. And no one believed that they would be able to return Crimeasaid a senior French official.

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Ukraine and the peace talks

These doubts contrast sharply with I Public Comments It was issued by President Joe Biden and other Western leaders, who have called for more unity to counter Moscow’s attack. Also, no one mentioned the possibility that Kiev could start talks with the Kremlin in the near future.

Meanwhile, the leaders G7 And the United States, after a virtual meeting Zelensky also attended on the day that marks the mournful anniversary of the first year of the war, was clear: Any country that intends to arm Russia against Ukraine or help Vladimir Putin circumvent Western sanctions will suffer. Very serious consequences. “We call on third countries and all international actors who are trying to circumvent the sanctions by providing material support to Russia to stop immediately, or else it will face harsh penalties.The warning was from Biden and his allies from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Great Britain, who pledged to step up support.Diplomatic, economic and military for Ukraine and raise costs for Russia and everyone who supports its war effort“.

As previously mentioned, Macron and Scholz allegedly told Zelensky that Ukraine should start thinking about it. Peace talks with Moscow. Over dinner at the Elysee Palace, the French president would send a more sober message, telling his guest that even sworn enemies like France and Germany had made peace after World War II. Macron also allegedly told the Ukrainian president that until now he was a great war leader, but sooner or later he would have to move into politics and make tough decisions.

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NATO show

Instead, a British official would announce that another NATO goal was to change the Kremlin’s plans. According to this reading, if the West is willing to increase its military aid and commitments to Ukraine over time, this rapprochement could convince Moscow that it cannot achieve its military objectives.

The potential NATO offer coincides with the supply of Kiev military means To deter any future Russian attack. It would not include any obligation to deploy NATO forces on Ukrainian soil, nor would it grant Zelensky so-called Article 5 protection, which requires all members to rescue another person if attacked and seek help.

While the exact terms are not specified, several officials have been cited before wsj extension They said that Ukraine could access a wide range of weapon systems compatible with NATO standards and integrate its armed forces into the Western defense industry’s supply chain. Germany has already expressed its willingness to provide specific assistance on a permanent basis, including air defences, heavy artillery, tanks and ammunition. Britain has talked about delivering warplanes. Moreover, officials say, individual members will continue to provide bilateral military assistance to Kyiv. Is it enough to reassure the Ukrainian government?

Ike Walton
Ike Walton
"Infuriatingly humble analyst. Bacon maven. Proud food specialist. Certified reader. Avid writer. Zombie advocate. Incurable problem solver."
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