November 30, 2022

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Elections, Markets Await NADPH: With Growth Declining and Deficit/GDP increasing, Meloni has no fiscal room to maneuver

The deadline is tomorrow, September 27. It’s the day when the current government – no matter how long it lasts Resigned – Must be present in Rooms there Update the note to Def. It never happened that the appointment was directly intertwined with elections policies and that, for this very reason, it was expected by the markets: the contents of that document, which represents the macroeconomic framework of the Budget Law, will depict the rapidly deteriorating economic situation. with the low growth By 1.5-2 points compared to the expectations of last spring and beyond Deficit/GDP which is amplified by both the deceleration and the increase in interest on debt for expenses”binding‘: see indexing annuities Inflation but also the extension of actions against i Energy price hike Posted by the Dragonwhich will be refinanced.

Result: small outer space tax Available to the next prime minister to maneuver will be practical Not Found. It’s no coincidence Georgia Meloni Recently, she said she’s running afoul of a new budget shift, she’s been on the cusp of high-cost election promises, while the co-founder of Fdi Guido Crosito Not only did he admit that “the flat tax is not currently under discussion” but went so far as to say that, given the very tight deadlines, the maneuver “must be something with four handsWith the outgoing government.

As always, the starting point is numbers Dave Last April, when the Treasury projected real GDP growth by 2023 2.4% it’s a indebtedness From 5.6% in 2022 (starting in 2020, it rose to very high levels due to Covid aid, thanks to the suspension of the Stability Pact) It should have fallen to 3.9%with the Debt/GDP So it decreased from 147 to 145.2%. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, expensive energy, inflation and moves European Central Bank To counter this, they completely changed the picture: the latest forecast is likely to be mini Recessionwith GDP already declining in the fourth quarter of 2022. The total figure for 2023 will stop according toOrganization for Economic Cooperation and Development To the + 0.4%consistent with the results of his survey Bloomberg Among the 34 economists, while the rating agency Fitch A few days ago, he went as far as to estimate a 0.7% drop. Combined with the increase in interest rates increasing interest spending on debt, the result will have a very negative impact on the deficit/GDP which will remain at around 5%.

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These are the expected numbers in the clubs that the Ministry of Economy is finalizing – only in Tendsas the program is dependent on the measures to be decided by the future executive – under the guidance of Daniel Franco. true that “3% judgment‘Still pending and proposals European Union Commission On the reform of the charter, but the budget law that would increase the indebtedness would in any case lead to increased tension in the markets that indifferently welcomed the outcome of the fully anticipated elections. The potential Meloni government’s first budget bill, which should in theory go to Parliament by October 20 but will inevitably slip, will already be saddled with the need to extend deductions, cut system fees and tax deductions to ease expensive bills that affect families and businesses. The separation of compulsory expenses also includes the continuation of 2% cut off tax wedge which will expire at the end of the year (Million files have been added satisfaction among his priorities) and a possible re-release of layoffs Free.

Space for campaign proposals fromExtension of the withholding tax to increaseone allowance for children, Doesn’t stay at all. Unless the brothers in Italy really intend to find the resources by canceling basic income and replace it with a dedicated tool for who can not work. With unknowns: What will happen to the many beneficiaries who are difficult to place in the labor market because of their characteristics? And the workers—one in four—earn so little that they come close to it poverty Will they be left without support?

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