Toronto, Ontario — The Ontario government has released its 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review: A Plan to Protect Ontario, outlining a comprehensive roadmap to strengthen the province’s economy amid global trade pressures and domestic challenges. The plan emphasizes fiscal prudence, infrastructure investment, and support for workers and businesses while aiming to maintain affordability for Ontario families.
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy presented the fiscal update at Queen’s Park, emphasizing the government’s commitment to shielding Ontario’s economy from the impacts of international tariffs and market uncertainty.
“With tariffs taking direct aim at Ontario workers and communities, it has never been more important for the government to deliver on its plan to protect Ontario,” said Minister Bethlenfalvy. “We continue to make historic investments in highways, transit, health care and all the other services our communities rely on, so we can build for our growing province. We are doing this all while keeping costs down for families and helping to unleash Ontario’s full economic potential. We are able to take unprecedented steps to protect Ontario thanks to our commitment to fiscal prudence, which has put Ontario’s finances in the strongest position they have been in over a decade.”
Boosting Competitiveness and Economic Resilience
The 2025 Fall Economic Statement introduces several targeted initiatives aimed at enhancing Ontario’s competitiveness and mitigating the effects of U.S. tariffs. Among the most significant measures is the creation of Ontario’s Tax Action Plan, which will modernize the province’s personal and corporate tax systems. The plan aims to attract new business investment, strengthen Ontario’s position among G7 economies, and lower costs for individuals and families. A full update on this initiative is expected in the 2026 Ontario Budget.
To further bolster trade resiliency, the province is investing an additional $100 million in the Ontario Together Trade Fund (OTTF), bringing total program funding to $150 million over three years starting in 2025–26. The increased support will help small and medium-sized enterprises diversify into new markets, adjust to tariff impacts, and grow interprovincial trade opportunities.
In support of Ontario’s manufacturing sector, the government is proposing enhancements to the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit (OMMITC). The plan includes temporarily increasing the tax credit rate from 10 per cent to 15 per cent and expanding eligibility to include non–Canadian-controlled private corporations. Additional amendments would provide greater flexibility for businesses investing in machinery and equipment, enabling them to innovate and remain competitive.
Supporting Workers, Families, and Core Services
Recognizing pressures on Ontario’s health-care system, the government announced $1.1 billion in new funding over three years to extend home care services and expand the Hospital to Home (H2H) program. This investment includes $982 million for home care and more than $170 million for H2H expansion, easing hospital congestion and ensuring patients receive appropriate care in their communities.
For first-time home buyers, the province is introducing a significant housing affordability measure: rebating the full provincial portion of the HST on qualifying new homes valued up to $1 million. Subject to federal legislation, the rebate will eliminate the 8 per cent provincial portion of the HST, saving first-time buyers up to $80,000 when combined with existing relief programs.
Investing in Long-Term Growth and Fiscal Stability
Ontario’s capital investment plan remains the most ambitious in its history, with over $201 billion in planned spending over the next decade, including $33 billion in 2025–26. These investments focus on highways, public transit, and other critical infrastructure that supports economic activity and job creation.
To help sectors hit hardest by U.S. tariffs—particularly in steel, aluminum, copper, and automotive manufacturing—the province is continuing to roll out its $5 billion Protecting Ontario Account. The first $1 billion, launched under the Protect Ontario Financing Program (POFP), is already helping Ontario-based manufacturers maintain operations and preserve jobs. The remaining $4 billion will be deployed through two additional funding streams designed to accelerate growth and innovation among high-potential firms.
Economic Forecast and Fiscal Outlook
According to the statement, Ontario’s real GDP is projected to grow 0.8 per cent in 2025 and 0.9 per cent in 2026, consistent with forecasts from the 2025 Budget. The province’s 2025–26 deficit is expected to reach $13.5 billion, an improvement of $1.1 billion from earlier projections. The government maintains a balanced budget target by 2027–28, with a modest $0.2 billion surplus forecast for that year.
Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP ratio is now projected at 37.7 per cent in 2025–26, slightly below previous forecasts. The government attributes this improvement to its disciplined fiscal management and stronger-than-expected revenue performance.
In the most recent Public Accounts of Ontario 2024–25, the province reported a $1.1 billion deficit, substantially lower than the $9.8 billion forecast in the 2024 Budget. The government says this progress underscores its ongoing commitment to debt reduction and responsible spending.
Looking Ahead
The government plans to launch new consultations in the coming months to shape the next phase of its economic plan, which will be reflected in the 2026 Ontario Budget. These consultations will seek public input on strategies to safeguard Ontario’s economy, promote job creation, lower taxes, and accelerate the delivery of key infrastructure projects.
Through A Plan to Protect Ontario, the Ford government is signalling its intention to balance economic growth with fiscal discipline — reinforcing a message of stability and resilience in a period of global uncertainty.
