The International Energy Agency (IEA) is set to release its flagship publication, the World Energy Outlook 2025 (WEO-2025), on Wednesday, offering a sweeping assessment of possible energy futures amid growing geopolitical tensions, shifting policies, and rapid technological change.
The annual report, described by the IEA as “the most authoritative source of global energy analysis and projections,” will be launched via a livestream event at 11 a.m. Paris time. Updated each year, the World Energy Outlook analyzes the latest energy data, technology trends, and policy developments to chart pathways for global energy security, emissions, and economic development.
According to the Agency, this year’s edition will examine multiple scenarios reflecting divergent policy assumptions and outcomes. “These will include exploratory scenarios that flow from different assumptions about existing policies, as well as normative pathways that achieve energy and emissions goals, including climate targets, improvements in air quality and universal access to modern energy,” the IEA said. One major theme will be the security of critical minerals supply, underscoring their growing importance in clean energy technologies.
Lead authors Laura Cozzi and Tim Gould have provided a commentary previewing key findings, alongside a panel discussion with Executive Director Fatih Birol during the launch.
Strengthening Global Energy Cooperation
The release of WEO-2025 comes as the IEA expands its international engagement. In late October, the Agency convened its Governing Board for the first time in Southeast Asia, meeting in Singapore during Singapore International Energy Week. The event marked a milestone following the opening of the IEA’s Regional Cooperation Centre in the city-state.
The gathering brought together senior policymakers from ASEAN Member States and the IEA’s 32 member countries to discuss pressing energy issues. Topics included strengthening Southeast Asia’s energy security through projects such as the ASEAN Power Grid, and bolstering the region’s participation in global critical mineral supply chains.
While in Singapore, Dr. Birol delivered opening addresses at both Singapore International Energy Week and the IEA-Singapore Forum, held bilateral talks with regional ministers including Singapore’s Tan See Leng and the Philippines’ Sharon Garin, and visited the Agency’s Regional Centre, led by Sue-Ern Tan.
Canada Highlights IEA’s Role at G7
Canada’s leadership in global energy dialogue was underscored during the G7 Energy and Environment Ministers’ Meeting in Toronto, where the IEA’s contributions were “strongly recognised” across several strategic areas — critical minerals, energy security, electricity reliability, artificial intelligence, and innovation.
The Chairs’ Summary from Canada’s G7 Presidency cited the IEA’s work throughout, noting Dr. Birol’s participation in ministerial sessions on energy security, critical minerals, and AI. Ministers from Australia, Korea, Mexico, and Ukraine also joined the discussions, chaired by Canada’s Energy Minister Tim Hodgson.
In Toronto, Canada and the IEA announced that the country will co-host the 11th Annual IEA Global Conference on Energy Efficiency in June 2026. The G7’s Energy and AI Work Plan further committed member states to collaborate with the IEA’s Energy and AI Observatory to find cost-effective solutions for powering AI and data centres sustainably.
LNG and Battery Markets Under Scrutiny
The IEA’s medium-term report Gas 2025 warns that global gas markets are on the verge of dramatic change, driven by an unprecedented expansion in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity. The Agency forecasts nearly 300 billion cubic metres of new LNG export capacity by 2030 — a record surge primarily led by the United States and Qatar — that could reshape global trade flows and strengthen supply security after years of volatility.
Meanwhile, the energy transition’s growing reliance on batteries has raised fresh economic and security concerns. In an opinion piece published by the Financial Times, Dr. Birol cautioned that “the world’s battery supply chains show a worrying dependency on one single country – China.” Drawing parallels to Europe’s former dependence on Russian gas, he warned that “dependence on a single supplier for a major fuel or technology brings huge risks.”
He emphasized that batteries’ strategic role extends far beyond clean energy — touching sectors from defence to AI infrastructure — making diversification of supply “a crucial issue of economic security.”
IEA at COP30 and Beyond
As world leaders gather in Belém, Brazil, for the COP30 summit, Dr. Birol has met with heads of state and key figures including EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and World Bank President Ajay Banga to discuss sustainable energy transitions.
Alongside Brazil’s Ministers of Mines and Energy and Foreign Affairs, he welcomed Brazil’s formal request to become a full IEA Member country — a move that would deepen cooperation across the Americas.
The IEA continues to play a central role in global policy coordination, from advancing energy efficiency goals to supporting Ukraine’s embattled energy system through its Everything Energy podcast and field missions to Kyiv.
As the world confronts accelerating energy transitions, the World Energy Outlook 2025 aims to provide governments and industries with a clear-eyed view of the paths ahead — balancing the imperatives of sustainability, security, and affordability.
