Sunday, March 3, 2024

For Eurocontrol, it could last (at least) until 2029

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there The war in Ukraine could continue until at least 2029, with a strong risk that the conflict, which has been going on for more than a year, will expand to include the rest of the continent or the world. This is evident from the announcement made by eurocontrolThe European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation.

As is known, at the time of the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the Kiev government decided so Close its airspace to civilian flightsban – ca va sans dire – It’s still going.

Fourteen months after the start of the special operation commissioned by Vladimir Putin, here is Eurocontrol in action Seven-year forecast from 2023-2029 Expect that nothing will change regarding the roads in the skies over Ukraine.

That is, the organization probably predicted that the war in Ukraine could not only last longer, but also To beat the Second World War in terms of duration which lasted six years.

Ukraine, an endless war?

Even with a crystal ball at the moment, it seems possible to predict The end of the war in Ukraine; However, the forecasts of the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation make us understand that a cease-fire will not be in sight.

In any case, this will be another indication of the black hole into which Europe has sunk for more than a year now, with Russia And Ukraine Engage in grueling war for locations in perfect 20th century style.

After all, for months there has been no news of a diplomatic negotiation worthy of the name: a plan China Much like the movement of conditions, the Türkiye After initial attempts never to move, theEurope Didn’t even try in the early stages United State – As it is now understood – they have no interest in reaching a ceasefire as soon as possible.

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With Russia convinced that at the moment there are no conditions for a diplomatic path while Ukraine in the fall blocked all negotiations by law, as if it did not want to take the “risks”, the Eurocontrol hypothesis does not seem far-fetched.

As this rate continues between now and 2029, there will be no more Ukrainian or Russian soldiers to fight, with Global or nuclear escalation that at this point it would be inevitable; Also from the point of view economic It would be a disaster for the entire ancient continent.

How long, then, can the war in Ukraine last? Even if we take into account the huge cost in economic terms and in human lives, it is unlikely that it will be possible to reach the year 2029, as stated on paper by the Pentagon in one of the leaks, it will be difficult to reach an agreement in 2023, with any hypothesis The cease-fire postponed to 2024, the year in which presidential elections will be held in the United States which, for the time being, see Joe Biden Struggling at the polls.

Ike Walton
Ike Walton
"Infuriatingly humble analyst. Bacon maven. Proud food specialist. Certified reader. Avid writer. Zombie advocate. Incurable problem solver."
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